By Marc McGowan
Frontrunners Collingwood and Port Adelaide are battling for form as the September jigsaw puzzle begins to form underneath them.
Fremantle’s defeat to flag fancy the Brisbane Lions ended their already slim finals chances, leaving 14 clubs to fill the eight spots up for grabs. Every team from fifth-placed Carlton could still miss out on the top eight, so there is plenty to play for in the next three weeks.
We will analyse the run home for the finals contenders every week from here, with the Dockers, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast already out of the running.
The Pies lost Brownlow Medal favourite Nick Daicos, and went down to Hawthorn, but remain two games clear on top.Credit: Getty Images
1. Collingwood (16-4, 64 points, 128%)
The Pies have dropped their past two matches, but still hold a two-game buffer on top with only three weeks left, so are firming for their first minor premiership in 12 years. The loss to the Hawks was a minor bump in the road compared to fresh injuries to Brownlow Medal favourite Nick Daicos and dependable defender Nathan Murphy. There is also intrigue about Tom Mitchell’s role after being subbed out again. There is still time to round into form pre-finals, but they will need to do so against a desperate Cats team on a six-day turnaround.
RUN HOME
R22: v Geelong (MCG)
R23: v Brisbane Lions (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Essendon (MCG)
2. Melbourne (14-6, 56 points, 125.3%)
With a top-two spot within reach, the Demons fell 33 points behind second-from-bottom North Melbourne on Sunday before taking the lead for good early in the second half. They had five multiple goal-kickers in the 32-point triumph as they scored 97 or more points for the fourth straight contest. The Roos game also continued a run where nothing has come easy for them. However, Simon Goodwin’s men have won five consecutive matches at a time their top-four rivals are wobbling, but face a stiff test against the Blues.
Christian Petracca’s Demons overcame an early scare to topple North Melbourne for an important four premiership points. The Demons are now second on the ladder on percentage.Credit: AFL Photos
RUN HOME
R22: v Carlton (MCG)
R23: v Hawthorn (MCG)
R24: v Sydney Swans (SCG)
3. Brisbane Lions (14-6, 56 points, 124.2%)
The Lions barely escaped from Perth with the win after Fremantle tested them until the final seconds. It would take an almighty collapse for the Lions to not end the home and away season in the top four, but they would dearly love to climb to second and have a qualifying final at the Gabba. They return to Brisbane this week to host the Crows, who remain in the finals hunt before a tricky encounter against the Pies that could decide their top-two fortunes. But coach Chris Fagan will hope his troops are in better form by then.
RUN HOME
R22: v Adelaide (Gabba)
R23: v Collingwood (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v St Kilda (Gabba)
4. Port Adelaide (14-6, 56 points, 108.5%)
Make it four contrasting defeats on the trot for Ken Hinkley’s men, who fell narrowly short of making Geelong’s premiership defence even more complicated. What could have been a hugely valuable win at GMHBA Stadium instead saw them drop two ladder rungs to fourth. The good news? Port’s draw is kinder from this point, and they will fancy their chances of winning all three remaining matches, although the Giants upset the Crows in Adelaide three weeks ago and are on the rebound.
RUN HOME
R22: v GWS Giants (Adelaide Oval)
R23: v Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R24: v Richmond (Adelaide Oval)
5. Carlton (11-8-1, 46 points, 117.2%)
It wasn’t easy, but the Blues took a giant step towards playing finals with Sunday’s come-from-behind victory over St Kilda. They have won seven straight matches and probably need only one more to seal their first finals action since 2013. More impressive was Carlton played without Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh and Harry McKay, with some other key role players also on the sidelines. There is an argument they are the AFL’s form side, and Saturday night’s showdown with the Dees might decide that either way.
RUN HOME
R22: v Melbourne (MCG)
R23: v Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R24: v GWS (Marvel Stadium)
Marcus Bontempelli starred again as the Dogs strengthened up their top-eight credentials.Credit: AFL Photos
6. Western Bulldogs (11-9, 44 points, 109%)
Benefited from an under-strength Richmond, but still needed to get the job done and did it with a leg in the air. The Dogs can shape their destiny and could lock in a finals berth in the next fortnight in winnable clashes with bottom-four sides – but that is deceiving, given the Hawks’ upset of Collingwood. The Eagles also showed improved form against Essendon. A loss in either of those contests would mean they must beat the Cats to make the final eight.
RUN HOME
R22: v Hawthorn (UTAS)
R23: v West Coast (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)
7. St Kilda (11-9, 44 points, 104.9%)
That was a brutal loss for the Saints, who were very impressive for a half, then struggled to match Carlton once the Blues began dominating clearances. St Kilda have spent the entire season inside the top eight after a blistering start, but that spot is looking tenuous ahead of the last three rounds. Neither the Tigers nor Cats are unbeatable, especially at Marvel Stadium, but the Saints will need to be good for longer if they want to prove critics wrong.
RUN HOME
R22: v Richmond (Marvel Stadium)
R23: v Geelong (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
8. GWS (11-9, 44 points, 101.6%)
The Giants’ season-saving seven-match winning streak is over, and the loss to similarly in-form Sydney could cost them a finals spot. They battled back again after falling in a 25-point hole, but left themselves too much to do this week. GWS must win two of their last three matches, with the home clash against the Bombers the only one they will start as favourites. But the Giants won at Adelaide Oval against the Crows three weeks ago, so they won’t fear the trip to South Australia to play a Power team that has lost four matches in a row.
RUN HOME
R22: v Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R23: v Essendon (Giants Stadium)
R24: v Carlton (Marvel Stadium)
9. Geelong (10-9-1, 42 points, 119.2%)
The Cats did the bare minimum in escaping with victory – and avoiding back-to-back defeats at GMHBA Stadium for the first time in eight years – after falling eight points behind Port Adelaide in the final term. The reigning premiers must win at least two of their last three games, and a date with out-of-sorts top side Collingwood next presents an opportunity to take a big step towards that (and Tom Hawkins might be back). The Saints and Bulldogs are also jostling for September berths, so every match matters from here.
RUN HOME
R22: v Collingwood (MCG)
R23: v St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Western Bulldogs (GMHBA Stadium)
10. Sydney (10-9-1, 42 points, 111.3%)
We are finally seeing the Swans of 2022 after a peculiar first 15 rounds, where they were stuck in the bottom four. The Sydney derbies are almost-always close, and Saturday night’s clash was no different, but John Longmire’s team was largely in control in the second half. The Swans have won five games and secured a draw in their past five outings – a 13-point defeat to Richmond the only miss in that period – to give themselves a chance to return to the finals. They may need to win every game from here, but at least two will be necessary.
RUN HOME
R22: v Gold Coast (SCG)
R23: v Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R24: v Melbourne (SCG)
11. Adelaide (10-10, 40 points, 117.1%)
Made hard work of it at times, but did as they should have in comfortably accounting for the Suns at Adelaide Oval at the weekend. Any slip-up from here may remove the Crows from the running, but there is still a chance that 12 wins will be enough to sneak in. They will be up against it when they travel to the Gabba to face the Lions, especially considering their 1-7 record outside South Australia this year. Sydney won’t be a pushover either, but where there is life there is hope.
RUN HOME
R22: v Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
R23: v Sydney Swans (Adelaide Oval)
R24: v West Coast (Optus Stadium)
Zach Merrett and the Bombers face an uphill battle to secure an unlikely top-eight berth.Credit: Getty Images
12. Essendon (10-10, 40 points, 98.5%)
The Bombers escaped with a one-point success against lowly West Coast at Marvel Stadium, but there was little reason to believe that was the start of a finals run. Instead, that performance was more of the same form that saw them lose five of their previous six matches. They also missed the opportunity for a desperately needed percentage boost. Essendon’s sub-100 percentage means their only path to September is to win their last three games, a scenario that is tough to picture.
RUN HOME
R22: v North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)
R23: v GWS (Giants Stadium)
R24: v Collingwood (MCG)
13. Richmond (9-10-1, 38 points, 94.8%)
The end is nigh for the Tigers’ season after losing Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Dylan Grimes ahead of Friday night’s big defeat to the Bulldogs, which was a hammer blow to their September chances. They can still feature in the finals if they win out from here, with their next fortnight of matches looking decent on paper. However, a round 24 trip to lock horns with the Power, who may be competing for a top-two berth, looks mighty hard for Richmond.
RUN HOME
R22: v St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R23: v North Melbourne (MCG)
R24: v Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
14. Gold Coast (9-11, 36 points, 93.8%)
The Suns effectively kissed goodbye to making finals for the first time with Saturday’s loss to the Crows but gave a decent account of themselves. Their modest percentage majorly hurts their cause, and will be hard to overcome, even if they somehow win all three of their matches to come. Gold Coast will officially be out of the race if they lose to the red-hot Swans on the road this Saturday, which seems a realistic outcome. Remaining competitive and pinching at least one more victory would be a good result.
RUN HOME
R22: v Sydney (SCG)
R23: v Carlton (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R24: v North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
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